Which ETF to buy in anticipation of a stronger AUD
Hi all, My ETF portfolio includes A200 (Top Australian companies), VEU (Ex-USA markets), and IVV (S&P 500). A lot of commentary recently expecting the AUD to rise above $0.80 and above. Assuming this is correct, which ETF would it be best to be diverting my pay checks into right now? I’m thinking IVV, because the stronger AUD should be making it cheaper right? Note that I’ve just started investing into ETFs in the last few months so not too concerned with mainting portfolio allocations yet.
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Zebrarank：April 30 deadline has expired, ASIC broker IFGM announced its withdrawal from the Chinese market
Fast news, foreign exchange spy received platform information, ASIC regulatory platform IFGM announced to suspend the mainland China market related services, namely exit China. 1.IFGM terminates cooperation with a third party company in China; 2.IFGM will not accept new account opening application and deposit in mainland China from now on;
For the current position holding customers in mainland China, they will close their positions at 17:00 on May 8, 2019 (Australian eastern time) and apply for gold. Overdue accounts will be subject to enforcement.
Customer funds are liquidated successively.
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Recently in the /dutchfire subreddit someone was asking for recommendations of ETFs to invest in: https://www.reddit.com/DutchFIRE/comments/5zygx4/je_krijgt_100000_euro_welke_vier_etfs_kies_je/df4lmjo/ I noticed that most people are investing in USD products domiciled in the US (for example in VTI). However, I have been investing exclusively in EUR products domiciled in Ireland through DeGiro (VWRL). Most of the fee-free products that DeGiro offers are distributing, which means I am incurring in dividend leaks since you cannot recover dividend witholdings from Ireland (~12%). I also understand that in the case of products domiciled in the US, you can deduct all dividend witholdings in your tax report (at least in the Netherlands). If this were the whole story, it would make perfect sense for me to invest in US domiciled ETFs. However, by investing in a different currency through DeGiro (and I guess all other brokers), one is also subject to a 0.1% forex spread in every EUUSD transaction. As such, whenever you buy or sell more ETFs, receive dividends and reinvest those dividends. For dividends the winner is clear: it is better to pay 0.2% in forex spread when investing through the US (0.1% when receiving dividends and 0.1% when reinvesting them) than losing 12% when investing through Ireland. But through Ireland you don't have forex costs when putting more money in your investments, whereas through the US you do pay an extra 0.1% over the total amount you invest. So I made a crude simulation of the costs for two all-world stock ETFs with similar portfolios, VWRL and VT. The first is domiciled in Ireland, the second in the US. I supposed a 2.5% dividend yield for both.
So to me it seems that looking at the total costs it makes more sense to invest in US domiciled products like VT. My question is: are my calculations are too simplified? Did I forget something? I thought I had made these calculations in the past and that I reached the conclusion that Ireland domiciled ETFs were a better choice. However, looking back, it seems I miscalculated and that I should start thinking about changing my VWRL portfolio into VT as soon as possible! Updates:
Devicated recommended disabling the AutoFX function in DeGiro during dividend payments as a way to avoid forex expenses on these.
Devicated also pointed out that whereas the "fund expenses" are regular payments over the total invested capital, "forex expenses" only apply to new investments. Therefore, adding 0.2% to the total expenses of VT is a gross overestimation.
If I remember correctly, the dividend witholding problem in Ireland domiciled funds applies just to the portion of the portfolio that is invested in the US (~50% for VWRL). Therefore, the dividend expenses would be 12% * 2.5% * 50% = 0.15%, and the total expenses 0.4%. Even so, taking into account the previous point and, as huppie mentioned, that you can substitute VT for a 50:50 blend of VTI:VXUS for an effective fund cost of 0.08%, a US domiciled fund still pays off.
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